Waste Wheelers

http://www.sbrforum.com – SBR.tv’s Peter Loshak and industry vet Big Al McMordie continue their weekly betting previews in the NFL with Week 14, featuring some contrarian opinions from McMordie.

Indianapolis is a 7-point home fave over scrappy Denver, after the undefeated Colts burned backers last week who were sensing a possible first loss and likely non-cover. The Broncos play a similar style to San Francisco – who lost 18-14 at Indianapolis a few weeks ago – a game predicated on quality defense and a conservative run-oriented offense, which could serve to keep the game close and relatively low-scoring. McMordie, who faded the Colts last week, weighs in on both the side and the total of 44.

New England is a 13.5-point home fave over Carolina after two road losses in a row. Pats coach Bill Belichick is notorious for having his team play well after losses, which has resulted in an astoundingly good ATS record for his teams after losses in recent years. This years version of the Pats though is thought to be overrated by some, and Big Al agrees. In this spot however, he does like the Pats to get a cover due to numerous serious weaknesses of the Panthers.

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Duration : 0:6:36

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http://www.sbrforum.com – Books did well with the NFL and the conference championship games in college this weekend, and a few sharp posters at SBR picked out some lines with great value. SBR.tv’s Peter Loshak recaps the weekend’s football betting action and results, and previews the Monday night NFL betting action.

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Duration : 0:5:26

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http://www.sbrforum.com – SBR.tvs Peter Loshak and industry vet Big Al McMordie continue their preview of Week 12 in the NFL after their successful Thanksgiving Day analysis.

Cleveland scored 37 points last week, a major jump in production for their normally anemic offense. But Cincinnati will no doubt give a better effort on D than Detroit gave the Browns last week. Al liked the over the first time these two teams met this year, as well as the over in the Cleveland/Detroit game last week. But this week its a different situation, and he and Loshak discuss the merits or lack thereof of a play on the over 38.5.

St Louis has hosted some of the top offenses in the NFL at home this year, which has led to a run of overs on their home games. With Seattle coming to town this week, things might be a bit different. The Seahawks arent generating any kind of run game at all, and Loshak and Al discuss whether the total of 42.5 is a bit too high.

The Jets are a 3-point home fave over Carolina in a clash of teams that have had mirror image seasons ATS-wise. The Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after a hot ATS start, while the Panthers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 after a slew of ATS losses to start the year. The Panthers have a number of weaknesses that have some wondering if this might be a week to try to time an ATS cover by the Jets. The Jets being the Jets have others wondering if this might be another good week to bet against the Jets.

Indianapolis is a 3.5-point road fave at Houston despite only beating the Texans by 3 at home a few weeks ago, and Al thinks this might be the week when the undefeated Colts are dealt their first loss. The Colts are only 1-2-1 ATS over their last 4 games, which were all SU wins but also all close down to the wire. Even if the Colts stay undefeated, if this game is again close down to the wire, Houston getting a FG and a hook will loom large.

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Duration : 0:7:9

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http://www.sbrforum.com – SBR.tvs Peter Loshak and industry vet Big Al McMordie continue their preview of Week 12 in the NFL after their successful Thanksgiving Day analysis.

San Francisco is a 3-point home fave over Jacksonville, who is coming off of 3 straight close wins over bad teams. The Niners opened up their offense a bit in the second half of last weeks game at Green Bay and enjoyed success with it, and that could be a sign of better things to come from their offense in the near future. The Niners have also had a strong D most of the year, despite giving up 30 points to the Packers last week, and Loshak sees all of this combining to point towards value on the side of SF. Al gives his endorsement, and cites a technical reason why.

Philly is a 9-point home fave over Washington, a team getting hit with the injury bug on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have a number of weapons on offense and an often-powerful blitzing D, but the Redskins ability to stay in games has Loshak considering a play on the Eagles on a teaser.

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Duration : 0:4:47

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http://www.sbrforum.com – Peter Loshak welcomes Big Al McMordie back to SBR.tv to preview Week 11 in the NFL. Loshak and McMordie discuss a selection of games, betting lines, and SBR poster opinions.

San Francisco is a 6.5-point road dog at Green Bay, with the total at 42.5. Both teams feature quality defenses, rated by one respected statistical analysis site as the top 2 defenses in the NFL. The Niners are also off of an extended break, enjoying 9 days of rest and preparation instead of the usual 6, and San Fran has demonstrated an ability this year to keep things close on the road against top NFL teams. Loshak expresses leans toward the Niners and the Under, but Big Al is steering clear of this one, and gives some historical insight into using the handicapping factor of teams playing with extra rest.

Indianapolis Pick ‘em at Baltimore is the probably the most-debated line of the week, and Loshak reads a quote posted on SBRForum.com by the poster sirmartingale summarizing the issue. To some, apparent value on the side of Indianapolis “seems too good to be true”. McMordie doesn’t feel the line is particularly off however, and gives a few reasons why he would in fact prefer the Ravens over the Colts, conflicting with the strong posted opinion of poster SamsNCharge99.

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Duration : 0:7:39

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http://www.sbrforum.com – Peter Loshak welcomes Big Al McMordie back to SBR.tv to preview Week 11 in the NFL. Loshak and McMordie discuss a selection of games, betting lines, and SBR poster opinions.

Jets’ coach Rex Ryan cried last week, and it’s not clear if that will help or hurt the Jets’ chances of covering a 10.5 point spread going into New England to face the Pats, who are off of their notorious loss to Indianapolis. Pats’ coach Bill Belichick has a tremendous ATS record coming off of losses in recent years, but Al is hesitant to endorse a bet on the Pats just on that, and gives a number of reasons to stay away.

Including the Pats in a 10-point teaser though has looked attractive to some, and 10-point teasers have gotten a lot of consideration in general this week with a number of favorites around 11 points. Loshak and Al discuss 10-point teasers a bit, and take note of SBR poster Sweatyguido’s selection of Minnesota, Dallas and New England.

Big Al ends by giving a pick on a total that has already moved in his favor, that he sees as still having value even at the new line.

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Duration : 0:4:33

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http://www.sbrforum.com – In their Week 9 NFL preview on SBR.tv last week, SBR.tvs Peter Loshak and Big Al McMordie agreed on several strong leans, all of which turned out to be winners. In their Week 10 preview however, there is a lot more respectful lack of consensus.

Cincinnati is 5-0 SU as a dog this year, and they go into Pittsburgh getting 7 points in one of the weeks marquee matchups. The Steelers though are always tough at home, and this year while they havent blown out the terrible teams they have faced, they have also easily handled the better teams they have faced recently. Big Al and Loshak discuss the betting lines in this intriguing handicapping scenario, and take a look at the other marquee game of the week as well, New England at Indianapolis.

Dallas as a 3-point road fave at Green Bay has attracted attention from well-respected posters at SBRForum.com, and Loshak feels agreement with them. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is getting sacked a ton this year, while the Cowboys have been surging since their bye. McMordie, however, points out some reasons to support Green Bay as a home dog, and then gives a lean on the Monday night game.

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Duration : 0:6:16

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http://www.sbrforum.com – In their Week 9 NFL preview on SBR.tv last week, SBR.tvs Peter Loshak and Big Al McMordie agreed on several strong leans, all of which turned out to be winners. In their Week 10 preview however, there is a lot more respectful lack of consensus.

Arizonas running game is improving, which could serve to bring their offense closer to its explosive levels of recent years. Last week Loshak liked Arizonas team total over, while Big Al preferred a straight play on Arizona as a dog. Both turned out to be right, and Loshak is again looking for a strong performance for the Cards this week as an 8.5-home fave over Seattle. McMordie is not so sure this week.

Kansas City travels to Oakland to take on the Raiders as a 1.5-point dog in a showdown of two of the NFLs worst teams. Oakland is off of a bye, while the Chiefs are off of their first week without troubled star RB Larry Johnson. Poor football is certain to be on display, but Loshak expresses a lean towards Oakland, while McMordie points out that a teaser on KC might be called for due to a likely close and low-scoring game.

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Duration : 0:6:57

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